A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
